Germany is facing a substantial shortage of nursing staff due to its ageing population, with projections indicating that the country will need 280,000 to 690,000 additional nurses by 2049. The nursing force forecast by the German Federal Statistical Office, Destatis, has revealed that the need for nursing staff is anticipated to increase from 1.62 million in 2019 to 2.15 million by 2049, marking a significant increase of 33 per cent.
To better understand the shortages, the forecast has outlined two variants. The “trend variant” takes into account demographic developments and positive trends observed in the nursing labor market since 2010, projecting an increase in employed nursing staff to 1.87 million by 2049. However, even with this optimistic projection, the number of nursing staff would fall short by 280,000 by 2049. The “status quo variant” takes only the effects of demographic changes into consideration, projecting a decrease in nursing staff to 1.46 million by 2049, resulting in the country being in need of 690,000 nursing staff by 2034.
To help deal with the ongoing shortages, Germany is continuing its efforts to recruit additional nurses from Latin America, with the potential to recruit around 700 nursing staff per year. This forecast suggests that immediate action is needed to ensure that the country will be able to cover the needs in the nursing field.
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